Which of the following words is closest in meaning to “Surmise”?

Surmise means to suppose without proof; a guess.

• Correct answer - guess: it has the same meaning as Surmise.
• plan: a method of doing something - wrong, it does not mean the same as Surmise.
• unexpected event: a surprise occurrence - wrong, it does not mean the same as Surmise.
• dawn: the first light of day - wrong, it does not mean the same as Surmise.